The scenario can not be more complex for the candidate of the New Majority, Alejandro Guillier, because just two weeks before the presidential election he faces the certain fact that his campaign is impregnated with a strong scent of defeat, which has discouraged the hosts of the conglomerate, even more when internally in his team recognize that there are no guarantees that the formula of the unit of the center-left forces, to face Sebastián Piñera in the second round, really gives him some chance. Thus, faced with what would be an inevitable failure, several in the coalition already think about the strategy to try to survive this political hecatomb, with a view to rearticulating after the loss of power.
It is assumed, at this time, that the main dilemma of Guillier is to think how to achieve under his wing the orphans of the Concertación, the New Majority and seduce the hosts of Frente Amplio, a task that seems titanic, but that, Within his command, there are already several that are considered unfeasible: "That has stopped," said a leader who explained that internally there is already enough clarity about what will really happen to the AF after November 19: a sector will support Guillier, another will decree freedom of action and another will be totally marginalized.
"Even if a coordination and unity of the center-left is achieved, at this point it will only make a difference in how it is lost, after 19 there will be signs in that line, but unity will not save us this time," warned a member of the group. guillierista command, precisely those who have the task of advancing the work from now with a view to the ballot.
The truth is that the real problem that the candidate has today is the anticipation of his defeat. The CEP survey on Wednesday, October 25 was a bucket of cold water in the ruling party, the idea was generalized that they would obtain a better performance than the 19.7% of Guillier's support, that the gap that separates him from Piñera (44 %) would not be so clear and that with the sum of forces with Beatriz Sánchez (8.5%), Carolina Goic (3.9%) and Marco Enríquez-Ominami (4.6%), at least they could tie the electoral force of the right candidate. But, precisely, that data was the one that threw to the ground the squalid expectations that were in the New Majority, because it would be a confirmation that the attempt to align the entire center-left behind the figure of Guillier in the ballot would not be enough to avoid defeat .
"Until before the CEP, Guillier was supposed to be better than Frei in 2009, it was over 29%, that's why the result had an impact," said one member of the team.
Thus, the mistakes of the last week, as the questioned announcement that there will be no government program before November 19 and that next week, at the most, will be released a sort of "compendium" of the proposals outlined so far in the campaign, they would not be more – they lamented in the bosom of the commando – that a "reflection" of the environment of defeat that surrounds the candidacy of the PS-PPD-PC and PR.
Guillier's complex panorama has not only been reflected in the CEP survey, but also in the latest La Moneda polls that have been known and seen by some members of the command, in which Piñera is installed in 42% of preferences, followed by the progressive standard bearer with only 25%, while the Frente Amplio charter ranges between 10% and 12%. In these polls, the right-winger would win the second round with a gap in favor of about 9 points, a fairly comfortable victory and that coincides with pessimistic calculations in sectors of the ruling party on the ineffectiveness of reissuing the strategy used in other races and balloting, in terms of agglutinating the center-left forces.
"It is impossible to beat Piñera, not only is there a bad candidate, but the right wing efficiently installed the idea that the country is wrong. This Government, its management these 4 years, has more than 60% rejection and that there is no way to reverse it, "lamented a leader of the New Majority.
Within Guillier's own command commented that, after the results of the CEP, the flag bearer "would have worried", not to lose -something that would be half assumed-, but to remain excessively indebted with the campaign, since, if obtains a low threshold of votes, the reimbursement that Servel will make for each suffrage obtained would not be enough to pay the loans acquired to finance his career at La Moneda.
In this context, the illogical signals that the PS-PPD-PC and PR candidate would have given to some radio stations, of wanting to lower their commercial batches in order not to continue spending on advertising, are explained in the command. "It is unusual for him to do this within two weeks of the election, he clearly lowered his arms," claimed one member of the political teams of the command that is aware of the decision.
These erratic decisions, according to sources close, reinforce the so-called "Guillier style", which is characterized not only by the known "porfía" of the flag bearer but also by the permanent tendency to disarm already agreed guidelines, cancel at the last moment activities on the ground and interviews with different means of communication.
"Along with the discouragement of the defeat, inside there is a spirit of anger and anger," they maintain.
Despite the pessimistic forecasts, sectors of the New Majority still consider as a key element playing cards for attempting a rearmament of the center-left, which, if it fails to neutralize Piñera, at least serve as the basis for the political articulation of a future opposition from March. Not only that, the ability to survive, after the election, also depends on the defeat in the ballot "not for beating" and, in that sense, it becomes logical and relevant to insist on the formula of joining the forces of the center-left.
In the New Majority they consider essential the role played by the CD and point out that Guillier is obliged to reach an understanding with Goic, with the parliamentarians of the phalanx and its leaders, precisely so as not to give him a flight of votes from that sector that favors even more to Piñera, but that, in addition, fracture the coalition irremediably.
In the ruling party say that Guillier's command are concerned only about the election on November 19 and that wrongly have too many expectations encrypted in the performance of the former UDI José Antonio Kast, as a factor that helps reduce the gap difference That night with Piñera.
For this reason, leaders and parliamentarians of the conglomerate are, by their own initiative, generating gestures and scenarios to guarantee the platform of understanding. A good example of this, explained in the New Majority, was the dinner that had on Thursday, October 26, the deputy PS Osvaldo Andrade, in the restaurant Don Peyo, an appointment that had originally been designed to raise funds for his campaign for re-election , but to which, after the poor results of the CEP, a turn was made and it was decided to call it a "political milestone" of rearmament and political unity.
Enríquez-Ominami arrived at the meeting, also the radical Osvaldo Correa, while the presidential candidate Alejandro Navarro sent a recorded greeting that night, the same the PPD senator Guido Girardi, his DC DC Ignacio Walker, as well as the deputies of the phalanx, Yasna Provoste and Aldo Cornejo. In all of them, the importance of understanding the center-left, the axis of political work between the PS and the DC and the need for a unitary spirit were discussed.
"What we have to do goes in this line precisely, there is the example of what is being built," they added in the PS.
But these efforts clash head-on with the errors that emanate from Guillier's own command and, punctually, the power struggle that exists, in this team, between those who conceive an understanding that passes yes or yes by the DC and who are prone to take distance from the phalanx, including the government of Michelle Bachelet and lean fully towards the Broad Front.
In that cock, all eyes are on two key characters in the candidate's environment: Enrique Soler and journalist Andrés Almeida Farga, Guillier's eldest son. In the whole command insist that only listen to them, that he ignores anyone else, that the bulk of leaders and coalition figures in the campaign has no arrival with the standard bearer and that all decisions actually go through that core of trust
Both Soler and Almeida do not generate confidence in the New Majority, in all these months they have not managed to tune in, which has been evident in the meetings of political analysis and evaluation of scenarios. The point is that they will also be the first to be identified as responsible for the mistakes made and the defeats.